The shots on goal ladder has one rung per player worth betting tonight, and for two of the three it’s the same step: Lucas Raymond 4+ and Artemi Panarin 4+. Alex DeBrincat’s sits one higher, at 5+. In each case the last 10 games and the Confidence Score both come in above the price. The safer rungs below them don’t.
Alex DeBrincat 5+ shots (+260, FanDuel)
Detroit at Edmonton, 9:30 PM ET. DeBrincat is averaging 3.82 shots a game, and the model projects 3.72 tonight, which is why the ladder lets you go a step higher with him than with the other two. He has 5 or more in 3 of his last 10. FanDuel’s +260 implies 27.8%. His Confidence Score on the rung is 30.8.
The 4+ rung looks like the obvious play at +118, but the model disagrees: a Confidence Score of 40.5 against a 45.9% implied price. If you’re betting DeBrincat shots tonight, 5+ is the number. Edmonton is allowing 3.55 goals a game, and a 6.5 total suggests Detroit gets its looks.
Lucas Raymond 4+ shots (+250, BetOnline)
Same game, same opponent. Raymond has hit 4+ in 4 of his last 10, the +250 price implies 28.6%, and his Confidence Score is 30.6. That 40% hit rate against a 28.6% price is the biggest cushion of the three.
One caution. The model projects 2.67 shots for him, below his 3.09 average, so the Confidence Score is leaning on the price more than on a big shot night. The main line at 3+ (+100) has a Confidence Score of 45.7 against 50.0% implied. Skip it.
Artemi Panarin 4+ shots (+182, FanDuel)
Panarin is back at Madison Square Garden tonight, now in a Kings sweater, for a 7:00 PM ET start against the Rangers. He’s at 4+ shots in 4 of his last 10. FanDuel’s +182 implies 35.5%, and the Confidence Score is 38.1.
This is the shortest price on the ladder and the one with the least room. The game total is just 5.5, a goal lower than Detroit at Edmonton, and the 3+ rung at -138 has a Confidence Score of 54.9 against 58.0% implied. Go one rung up or pass.
How to play the three
- DeBrincat 5+: +260 FanDuel. Last 10: 30%. Implied 27.8%. Confidence Score 30.8.
- Raymond 4+: +250 BetOnline. Last 10: 40%. Implied 28.6%. Confidence Score 30.6.
- Panarin 4+: +182 FanDuel. Last 10: 40%. Implied 35.5%. Confidence Score 38.1.
These are individual plus-money bets, not a parlay. DeBrincat and Raymond are in the same game, so if Detroit has a quiet night in Edmonton, both can miss together. Size them that way.
Shot prices move through the day. Open the full ladders on the PropsBot board for the live numbers, and see how our picks have graded on the public ledger at dashboard.propsbot.ai.
For the current slate, start at NHL shots on goal props. The latest card is pinned there. More on this sport: NHL picks today.
Get every AI pick, Confidence Score, and prop edge on PropsBot.
See Today’s AI Picks