NHL Shots on Goal Props Today: Hagel, MacKinnon, Caufield SOG Ladder (Oct. 23, 2026)

Brandon Hagel has put 3 or more shots on goal in 9 of his last 10 games, and tonight Hagel 3+ shots is -190 at Fanatics. That price implies 65.5%. Of the 18 rungs on today’s NHL shots on goal ladder, that’s the widest gap between recent form and price among the short-priced ones. Nathan MacKinnon and Cole Caufield round out the plate, and both have rungs where the price already runs ahead of their form.

Player	Game (ET)	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	6+
Brandon Hagel (TBL)	@ COL, 9:00 PM	10/10	9/10	9/10	5/10	5/10	4/10
Nathan MacKinnon (COL)	vs TBL, 9:00 PM	10/10	8/10	6/10	6/10	4/10	3/10
Cole Caufield (MTL)	@ CHI, 8:00 PM	9/10	8/10	8/10	4/10	4/10	2/10

Gold on the plate marks the rung in each row where the last-10 hit rate beats the best price’s implied probability by the widest margin: Hagel 6+ at +575 (40% vs. 14.8% implied), MacKinnon 6+ at +360 (30% vs. 21.7%) and Caufield 3+ at -255 (80% vs. 71.8%).

One caveat up front. The ladder compares last-10 hit rates with the best available price. The Confidence Score is more conservative on most of these rungs, so where form and model disagree, I’ll say so. Size these like form plays, not model plays.

Brandon Hagel 3+ shots: the flat spot

Hagel’s ladder barely moves through the first three rungs: 10 of 10 at 1+, then 9 of 10 at both 2+ and 3+. He’s 12 of 15 at 3+ over a longer sample, and he’s averaging 4.56 shots a game in 21.5 minutes. Colorado is allowing 27.3 shots a game.

Why 3+ and not 2+? At 2+ you’re paying -575 (85.2% implied) for the same 9-of-10 history. At 3+ the price drops to -190 and the hit rate doesn’t. The catch: the model’s Confidence Score on 3+ is 58.6, below the 65.5% the price implies. The form case is strong. The model is not on board.

Further up, Hagel is 5 of 10 at 5+ (+280, 26.3% implied) and 4 of 10 at 6+ (+575, 14.8% implied). The 6+ rung is the one spot on his ladder where the Confidence Score (18.0) also sits above the price. It’s also his gold rung on the plate: a long shot, priced like one. The 3+ rung is the short-priced way to play the same volume.

Nathan MacKinnon: price already caught up

MacKinnon averages 4.4 shots a game, and he’s 10 of 10 at 1+. But books know that. 2+ is -1000 (90.9% implied) against an 8-of-10 history, and 3+ is -278 (73.5% implied) against 6 of 10. Both price him above his recent form.

The more interesting numbers are higher up. 4+ at -125 on Fanatics implies 55.6% against a 6-of-10 run, and 6+ at +360, his gold rung, implies 21.7% against 3 of 10, though the Confidence Score (20.6) sits just under that price. Tampa Bay only allows 24.1 shots a game, which is the reason to keep any MacKinnon position small.

Cole Caufield: skip the bottom rungs

Caufield’s 1+ and 2+ rungs are traps on form. 1+ is -5000 (98.0% implied) against 9 of 10, and 2+ is -800 (88.9% implied) against 8 of 10. The price is ahead of the player on both.

3+ is where he flattens: 8 of 10, same as 2+, at -255 on DraftKings (71.8% implied). Chicago allows 30.7 shots a game, the most of the three matchups on this plate. It’s his gold rung on the plate. The model has 3+ at 64.1, below the price, so treat it the same way as Hagel 3+: a form lean, sized down.

Before you bet the ladder

What time are the games? Canadiens at Blackhawks is 8:00 PM ET. Lightning at Avalanche is 9:00 PM ET. Both Friday, October 23, 2026.

Which rungs have both form and the model behind them? On this plate, mostly the higher rungs: Hagel 6+ and Caufield 4+, 5+ and 6+ carry Confidence Scores at or a touch above their prices. The short-priced rungs are form plays.

Ladder prices here are from the 2:48 PM ET board. Shot props move once lines are confirmed, so check every rung on the PropsBot ladder before you bet. Main-line SOG picks are on our NHL shots on goal props page, and graded picks go to the public ledger at dashboard.propsbot.ai.

For the current slate, start at NHL shots on goal props. The latest card is pinned there. More on this sport: NHL picks today.