Start with Brandon Hagel at 4+ shots, and start with the catch: ESPN lists him day-to-day. If he plays, BetOnline.ag is paying +142 on a rung he has cleared in 6 of his last 10, and a Confidence Score of 43.0 sits 1.7 points above the 41.3% that price implies. Juraj Slafkovsky at 3+ (+150) and Quinn Hughes at 3+ (+135) clear theirs too.
Brandon Hagel, 4+ shots: Jets at Lightning
Puck drop is 7:00 PM ET in Tampa. Hagel has hit 4+ in 6 of his last 10 and 3 of his last 5, and 6 of 11 this season. The best number is +142 at BetOnline.ag. If you are on FanDuel, the price there is +134, which implies 42.7%, and the Confidence Score of 43.0 still edges it. Either way the rung holds.
The neighbors do not. The 3+ rung is -164 at BetOnline.ag, implying 62.1% against a Confidence Score of 58.3. The 5+ rung is +305 at FanDuel, implying 24.7% against 21.9. Both are passes. Four is the one.
ESPN has had him day-to-day since Oct. 28. Books are still hanging the line, which is a decent sign, but check the lineup before you touch this one.
Juraj Slafkovsky, 3+ shots: Canadiens at Stars
Montreal at Dallas, 8:00 PM ET. This is the widest cushion on the ladder: FanDuel has 3+ at +150, which implies 40.0%, and the Confidence Score is 42.0, 2.0 points clear. Slafkovsky has gotten there in 6 of his last 10 and 6 of 12 this season, though only 2 of his last 5.
Shop this one. When the card was built, BetOnline.ag had it at +141. It has since slid to +126, and FanDuel is the book paying the +150. Stepping down is not the answer: 2+ is -210 at FanDuel, implying 67.7% against a Confidence Score of 63.3. Stepping up to 4+ pays +375 but has landed in only 3 of his last 10.
Quinn Hughes, 3+ shots: Islanders at Wild
A defenseman on a shot ladder looks odd until you read his last ten. Hughes, now with Minnesota, has 3+ shots in 6 of his last 10, 3 of his last 5 and 9 of 14 this season. The price is +135 at Fanatics (it was +140 earlier), which implies 42.6%, and the Confidence Score is 43.7. That is a 1.1-point margin, the thinnest of the three. Puck drop is 8:00 PM ET at Minnesota.
The rungs on either side lose. 2+ is -220 at Fanatics, implying 68.8% against a Confidence Score of 65.7. 4+ is +340, implying 22.7% against 22.3. Three is the only step that works, and the small margin means a small stake.
Which of the three to lead with
- Slafkovsky 3+: +150 FanDuel. Last 10: 6 of 10. Implied 40.0%. Confidence Score 42.0. Margin 2.0.
- Hagel 4+: +142 BetOnline.ag. Last 10: 6 of 10. Implied 41.3%. Confidence Score 43.0. Margin 1.7. Day-to-day.
- Hughes 3+: +135 Fanatics. Last 10: 6 of 10. Implied 42.6%. Confidence Score 43.7. Margin 1.1.
My order is Slafkovsky, Hagel, Hughes. Slafkovsky has the biggest margin and a clean injury report. Hagel is second on margin once he is cleared to play. Hughes is a small play at a fair price. These are three separate plus-money singles from three different games, not a parlay. The numbers are from the 10:17 AM ET pull and shot props move through the day, so check the price at your book. The live ladders are on the PropsBot board, and if a Confidence Score has dropped below its price, skip that rung.
Keep the NHL shots on goal props hub bookmarked; it always carries the newest card at the top. More on this sport: NHL picks today.
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