Three rungs on tonight’s NHL shots on goal ladder are priced below what the model thinks they are worth: Trevor Zegras 3+ at +235, William Nylander 4+ at +195 and Jack Hughes 5+ at +265. The margins are thin on all three, so this is a ladder to read carefully rather than bet blind. Hughes has the widest one, and Zegras the narrowest.
Jack Hughes 5+ shots (+265, Fanatics)
New Jersey at Colorado, 9:00 PM ET. Hughes has reached 5+ shots in 3 of his last 10, 30%, against a +265 price that implies 27.4%. His Confidence Score on the rung is 29.1, a cushion of about 1.7 points. This is the rung that moved most through the morning: at 6 AM ET the price was +280 with a Confidence Score of 29.5, and in between it dipped below the price for a stretch. It is back above it now, so it is on the card, but it is the first one to drop off if the number slips.
Stepping down does not help. The 4+ rung is +128 at BetOnline with a Confidence Score of 43.5 against 43.9% implied, a pass.
William Nylander 4+ shots (+195, FanDuel)
Toronto at Seattle, 10:00 PM ET, the late game. Nylander has gone 4+ in 5 of his last 10, 50%. FanDuel’s +195 implies 33.9% and the Confidence Score is 34.9. His last-10 rate sits 16 points above the price, which is the strongest recent-form case on the ladder.
The one below is a trap: 3+ is -127 at BetOnline with a Confidence Score of 52.6 against 55.9% implied. The one above, 5+ at +475, is past the +400 ceiling we use. 4+ is the only step that works.
Trevor Zegras 3+ shots (+235, Fanatics)
Philadelphia at Washington, 7:30 PM ET. Zegras has 3 or more shots in 7 of his last 10, 70%, the best hit rate of the three. The price is +235, implying 29.9%, and the Confidence Score is 30.5. That is the thinnest model margin on the ladder, about 0.6 of a point, so the case here rests on the recent shot volume more than on the model.
The shorter rung is worse. At 2+ the price is -125 at BetMGM and the Confidence Score is 52.8 against 55.6% implied. The 4+ rung pays +650, well past +400. If you play him, play 3+ and keep it small.
How to play the three
- Hughes 5+: +265 Fanatics. Last 10: 30%. Implied 27.4%. Confidence Score 29.1.
- Nylander 4+: +195 FanDuel. Last 10: 50%. Implied 33.9%. Confidence Score 34.9.
- Zegras 3+: +235 Fanatics. Last 10: 70%. Implied 29.9%. Confidence Score 30.5.
These are three separate plus-money singles from different games, not a parlay. Prices and Confidence Scores here are from the pull at 9:51 AM ET and shot props move through the day, so confirm the number at your book. The live ladders are on the PropsBot board. If a Confidence Score has fallen below its price, skip that rung.
For the current slate, start at NHL shots on goal props. The latest card is pinned there. More on this sport: NHL picks today.
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