Patriots vs. Bears Predictions & Player Props — October 22, 2026

The play in this game isn’t the spread. It’s Caleb Williams under 19.5 rushing yards at -109, four days after he came back from a hamstring injury. The Confidence Gap on that under is +4.8, the biggest positive gap on any quarterback prop tonight, at close to even money. Chicago -3 and the 50.5 total are both priced right where the model has them, so we’re passing on both.

Both teams are 4-2. New England beat the Jets 26-19. Chicago won 31-23 in Atlanta in Williams’ first game back. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET at Soldier Field on Prime Video.

Who’s out for Patriots vs. Bears

• Kyle Monangai (CHI RB): out, thumb/toe. Third straight missed game. He didn’t take part in any of the three walkthroughs. D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson split the work.
• Caleb Williams (CHI QB): playing. He missed three games with the hamstring, went 30 of 36 for 305 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta, and hasn’t been on the injury report this week.
• A.J. Brown (NE WR): playing. Limited Monday and Tuesday with the ankle, full on Wednesday, no game status. Last week, his first game back from injured reserve, he played 52 of 67 snaps and caught 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards.
• Patriots ruled out five: offensive linemen Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown, and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada. Right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable, along with safeties Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson and linebacker Christian Elliss.
• Bears: LB Jack Sanborn out, LB T.J. Edwards doubtful, CB Tyrique Stevenson questionable. Right guard Jonah Jackson is off the report and will play.

One housekeeping note. Some books still list a Monangai anytime touchdown price. Ignore it.

Why the side and total are a pass

• Spread: Bears -3, best price +104. Patriots +3, best price -104. Fair is +102 on Chicago and -102 on New England. DraftKings has it Bears -3 (-105) and Patriots +3 (-115). It opened Bears -1.5.
• Moneyline: Bears -148 at best, against a fair -142. Patriots +147, against a fair +142. Chicago carries a Confidence Score of 59.3 to win. The New England price is barely above fair, about eight-tenths of a point of edge. Not enough.
• Total: 50.5. Over -106 at best (fair -104), Under +104 at best (fair +104). DraftKings opened at 47.5 and now deals 50.5, Over -118.
• Team totals: Bears 26.5, Patriots 23.5. All four sides price below fair. Nothing to bet.

The move from -1.5 to -3 and the three-point climb on the total mostly happened before Wednesday. If you were holding Patriots thoughts at +1.5 earlier in the week, +3 is a better ticket. It’s still not a positive number on this board, so we’d wait for a +3.5 that probably won’t come.

Caleb Williams: bet the legs under, skip the arm

Williams under 19.5 rushing yards (-109, DraftKings). Confidence Score of 57.0, Confidence Gap of +4.8, Edge Score of +3.3. He’s gone over this number in 5 of his last 10, so the history is a coin flip and the price is a coin flip. The board leans under anyway. Four days after his first game back from a hamstring injury, with Jackson back at right guard to keep the pocket clean, there’s not much reason for him to tuck it and run.

His passing yardage is a different story. The line is 244.5 (-110 at Pinnacle) with a model projection of 262.5, which reads like an over until you see the Confidence Gap at -3.6. The public is already there. Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-150, Pinnacle) has an 80% hit rate across his last 10 and a Confidence Score of 57.2, but that gap is negative too (-3.0). Both are passes.

The Chicago backfield without Monangai

On Wednesday we liked Swift over 14.5 carries at +101. That price is gone. It’s -111 at Pinnacle now, and the Confidence Gap has flipped to -2.6. Pass.

The number that moved the other way is his yardage. Swift under 61.5 rushing yards (-113, betPARX) carries a Confidence Score of 59.9 and a +6.9 Confidence Gap. He’s cleared 61.5 in only 3 of his last 10. That sounds backwards with Monangai out, but the board doesn’t see Swift’s volume turning into yards. The Edge Score is only +1.8, so this is a lean, not a full play.

Swift’s anytime touchdown at -157 is still the one to avoid. He’s the most likely scorer in the game at a Confidence Score of 54.6, and the Confidence Gap is -6.1. Everyone knows.

New England: Henry’s catches and Brown’s under

Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions (+123, Pinnacle). Confidence Score of 47.3, Confidence Gap of +2.2, Edge Score of +4.0, projection 3.75 catches. To be clear about the downside, he’s gone over 3.5 in just 2 of his last 10. This is a price bet. At +123 you only need to be right about 45% of the time, and the board makes him more likely than that. With Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown out up front and Moses questionable, Drake Maye’s quick throws to the tight end should be there. Shop it, though. Prices have moved around today, and Pinnacle’s +123 is the best 3.5 on the board right now.

A.J. Brown under 5.5 receptions (-143, DraftKings). Confidence Score of 63.8, Confidence Gap of +5.1. He’s playing, but last week was 3 catches on 10 targets in his first game off IR. The Edge Score is only +2.5 at that price, so it’s a lean. Several books have already dropped this to 4.5, so make sure you’re getting 5.5. His 69.5 receiving yards line (Confidence Score of 50.4, gap -2.4 on both the over and the under) is a pass in both directions.

Demario Douglas anytime touchdown (+325, BetMGM): pass. The Edge Score is +7.8, but the Confidence Gap is only +0.5 (Confidence Score of 23.9), barely off zero. Not worth a long-shot stake.

Maye over 1.5 touchdown passes (-117, Pinnacle) sits at a Confidence Score of 53.2 with a -0.9 gap. Fair price, no edge. Pass.

The card

• Play: Caleb Williams under 19.5 rushing yards (-109)
• Play: Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions (+123)
• Lean: D’Andre Swift under 61.5 rushing yards (-113)
• Lean: A.J. Brown under 5.5 receptions (-143)
• Pass: spread, total, moneyline, Demario Douglas anytime TD, Swift anytime TD, Swift carries, Williams passing yards and TD passes, Maye TD passes

For the Bears receivers, we went through Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland rung by rung in a separate alt-line breakdown of the Odunze, Burden and Loveland receiving yards ladder. The short version is Odunze 40+ receiving yards at -127.

Prices, Confidence Scores and Edge Scores for every one of these are live on the PropsBot board, and results get graded on the public ledger at dashboard.propsbot.ai.

Patriots vs. Bears FAQ

What time is Patriots vs. Bears on Thursday Night Football?

8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, at Soldier Field, streaming on Prime Video.

What’s the spread and over/under for Patriots at Bears?

Chicago -3 with a total of 50.5. The best moneyline prices are Bears -148 and Patriots +147. DraftKings opened this game at Bears -1.5 and 47.5.

Is Kyle Monangai playing tonight?

No. The Bears ruled him out Wednesday with thumb and toe injuries. It’s his third straight missed game.

Is Caleb Williams healthy?

Yes. He’s been off the injury report all week after throwing for 305 yards in his return from the hamstring injury.

Is A.J. Brown playing for the Patriots?

Yes. He practiced in full Wednesday and carries no game status.