Collin Morikawa is the bet at Yokohama. Our model gives him a 50.7% chance to finish inside the top 10 at the Baycurrent Classic, and the book is offering +145. That gap is +9.88 percentage points, roughly double the next-best edge on the board, and it comes with a Confidence Score of 69.9, the highest of anyone on this list. When the biggest edge and the strongest confidence land on the same name, you don’t overthink it.
Round 1 at Yokohama Country Club tees off Wednesday evening ET, which is Thursday morning in Japan. Here’s how the top 10 market sorts out.
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Baycurrent Classic top 10 board, sorted by edge
The edge is the model’s top 10 probability minus the probability baked into the book’s price, in percentage points. Positive means the price is too long. Negative means the book already has the player shorter than we do.
| # | Player | Model top 10 | Price | Confidence Score | Edge | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collin Morikawa | 50.7% | +145 | 69.9 | +9.88 | Play |
| 2 | Andrew Putnam | 11.6% | +1400 | 35 | +4.93 | Play (small) |
| 3 | Hideki Matsuyama | 44.0% | +142 | 63.8 | +2.70 | Play |
| 4 | Adam Scott | 35.9% | +200 | 64.8 | +2.55 | Play |
| 5 | Ricky Castillo | 18.6% | +490 | 54 | +1.62 | Play (small) |
| 6 | Nick Taylor | 16.1% | +560 | 53.3 | +0.95 | Thin play |
| 7 | Rickie Fowler | 26.7% | +280 | 58.1 | +0.35 | Thin play |
| 8 | Kurt Kitayama | 29.9% | +230 | 62.7 | −0.45 | Pass |
| 9 | Keith Mitchell | 22.7% | +310 | 54.4 | −1.71 | Fade |
| 10 | Mac Meissner | 15.2% | +475 | 47 | −2.24 | Fade |
Morikawa at +145 is the anchor
A coin-flip top 10 at plus money. That’s the whole case. The model sees Morikawa as slightly better than even to finish top 10, and +145 prices him well short of that. Of the ten names here he has the highest top 10 probability, the highest Confidence Score, and the widest edge. If you play one top 10 ticket this week, it’s this one.
Andrew Putnam is the longshot with a real gap
Putnam at +1400 is a different animal. The model has him at 11.6% to finish top 10, and the edge is +4.93, second on the board. The catch is a Confidence Score of 35, the lowest on the list, so the read is less settled than Morikawa’s. Price is the reason to play him anyway. At +1400 you don’t need him to hit often for this to pay. Smaller stake, and treat it as the swing ticket next to Morikawa, not a replacement for him.
Matsuyama and Scott: smaller edges, solid confidence
Hideki Matsuyama (44.0%, +142) and Adam Scott (35.9%, +200) sit at +2.70 and +2.55. Neither edge is big. Both come with confidence in the mid-60s, 63.8 for Matsuyama and 64.8 for Scott, which is the next tier down from Morikawa. Matsuyama is priced almost the same as Morikawa and rates lower on all three numbers, so if you’re choosing between the two at the top of the market, take Morikawa. Scott at +200 is the cleaner second play.
Castillo, Taylor and Fowler: thin edges
Ricky Castillo (+490, 18.6%, edge +1.62) is the best of this group and worth a small piece. Nick Taylor at +560 shows +0.95. Rickie Fowler at +280 is +0.35, which is close to fair. Those last two are positive, but by a sliver, and any move toward shorter odds wipes them out. Bet them at the posted number or better, or skip them.
Kitayama, Mitchell, Meissner: the model is below the book
Rows 8 through 10 are negative edges. These are not picks. The model has Kurt Kitayama (−0.45), Keith Mitchell (−1.71) and Mac Meissner (−2.24) below the probability their price implies, so backing any of them to finish top 10 means paying more than the model thinks the bet is worth.
Kitayama is the one to watch. His Confidence Score of 62.7 is one of the better marks here, and 29.9% is a respectable top 10 number. But +230 already prices that in, and then some. A good player at a bad price is still a pass. Mitchell at +310 and Meissner at +475 are further underwater. Meissner also carries a Confidence Score of 47, the second-lowest on the board. If anything, those two are fades.
PGA picks this week: how I’d card it
- Full stake: Morikawa top 10 at +145.
- Normal stake: Scott top 10 at +200, Matsuyama top 10 at +142.
- Small stakes: Putnam top 10 at +1400, Castillo top 10 at +490.
- Only at this number or better: Taylor at +560, Fowler at +280.
- No bet: Kitayama, Mitchell, Meissner.
For the full-field look at Yokohama, outright angles and the rest of the week, read our Baycurrent Classic predictions and preview.
Baycurrent Classic top 10 FAQ
Who is the best top 10 bet at the Baycurrent Classic?
Collin Morikawa at +145. The PropsBot model gives him a 50.7% chance to finish top 10, an edge of +9.88 percentage points, with a Confidence Score of 69.9. All three are the best marks on this list.
Is there a longshot worth backing at Yokohama?
Andrew Putnam at +1400. He’s at 11.6% to finish top 10 in the model, an edge of +4.93. Confidence is low at 35, so keep the stake small.
Why are Kitayama, Mitchell and Meissner on the list if they aren’t picks?
The list ranks the ten players by edge, and the bottom three are negative: −0.45, −1.71 and −2.24. The model rates each of them below what their price implies. They’re shown so you know which prices to avoid, not to bet.
When does the Baycurrent Classic start?
Round 1 at Yokohama Country Club in Japan starts Wednesday evening, October 7, Eastern time, which is Thursday, October 8, local time. The event runs October 8–11.
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