Quick answer: Amon-Ra St. Brown is the slot specialist with elite target share. His weekly board: receptions over 6.5 to 8.5 (-115 to -135), receiving yards over 70.5 to 90.5 (-110 to -125), longest reception over 18.5 to 24.5 (-115 to -130), total TDs over 0.5 (+105 to +160). The edge lives in his receptions prop, which is one of the most-clear-the-over markets in NFL.
What Drives ASB’s Production
Slot target share above 30%. Goff’s accuracy in dome environment. Game script: Lions trailing pushes his targets to 12+. Opposing slot coverage matters more than outside CB matchups.
Receptions Prop
Receptions over 7.5 hits ~62-68% in neutral matchups. ASB averages 7.5+ receptions per game career-long. The over has plus value against zone-coverage teams.
Where the Sharp Edge Lives
Receptions over weekly. Receiving yards over in Ford Field dome games. TDs over 0.5 in red-zone-heavy game scripts.
Common Mistakes
Ignoring Goff’s status. Same-game parlay traps. Chasing primetime games.
Worked Example
Week 7, Lions home, dome. Opposing slot CB ranks 22nd. ASB receptions over 7.5 at -125. Model projects 8-9. Implied ~56%, model ~67%.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s ASB’s typical receptions line?
6.5 to 8.5 depending on matchup.
Are ASB receptions overs profitable?
Yes. His slot target share is among the league’s elite. The 7.5 line clears 62-68% in neutral matchups.
How does Ford Field affect ASB?
Significantly. Dome environment amplifies his accuracy-and-target volume profile.
Does PropsBot project ASB weekly?
Yes. Calibrated probability with target share, slot CB matchup, dome status, and Goff status.
Should I parlay receptions + yards?
Avoid SGPs. Take individual bets when each has independent edge.
Updated 2026-05-04. For live picks on Amon-Ra St. Brown, visit the PropsBot.AI dashboard. Browse the full player prop hub or our 80-entry sports betting glossary.
