Week 2 — New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, September 20, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET. Lines quoted are Week 2 openers from the Monday, September 14 capture. Re-price on the NFL board before you act.
Fifty-six pass attempts. That is what Tyler Shough threw in Detroit, and the 410 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions that came with them were still one point short in a 30–31 loss. Chris Olave caught 10 of 13 for 182; Devaughn Vele added 7 catches, 69 yards and a score. Baltimore, meanwhile, did not need volume: Lamar Jackson threw only 25 times for 324 yards in a 41–23 win at Indianapolis, Derrick Henry ran 24 times for 144 and three touchdowns, and Zay Flowers turned six targets into 150 yards and a score.
What Week 1 told us
New Orleans trailed and threw. Shough’s 35 completions were the most by any quarterback through Sunday and the model’s pre-kickoff overs on his attempts (34.5) and completions (21.5) both held. The ground game was split — Travis Etienne 9 for 46, Kendre Miller 9 for 30 and a touchdown — and Shough himself ran four times for 8 yards.
Baltimore was ruthless on a small number of touches. Henry’s 163 scrimmage yards cleared his combined line by 71; Jackson added 40 rushing yards and a touchdown on seven carries; Mark Andrews (4 of 6, 49) and Chris Moore (one catch, 53 yards) rounded out a passing game that averaged 13 yards an attempt.
Players to target
A line carries a model lean below only where one side’s confidence reached 60 at capture. Everything else is the opener plus the Week 1 evidence, with no side attributed to the model.
- Derrick Henry — anytime touchdown, opened -200 at Fanatics. The model leans over (confidence 62). Three touchdowns on 24 carries in Indianapolis; this is the one model lean in the game and the price is the shortest on the 1 p.m. touchdown board for a reason.
- Derrick Henry — rushing yards, opened 82.5. No model score on this single-book opener. The number is 61 yards under his Week 1 total on 24 carries; the workload is the stable part of that box score, the yardage is the part the market has discounted.
- Tyler Shough — rushing yards, opened 19.5. No model score on this single-book opener. Four carries for 8 yards while throwing 56 passes, and the under on 18.5 held last week — the evidence is there, the model has not weighed in.
The line to respect
Lamar Jackson — passing yards, opened 224.5. He threw for 324 on 25 attempts, and the opener is priced 100 yards below that. Twenty-five attempts is the number to remember: the yardage came from efficiency, and the market has already assumed it does not repeat. No model score on this opener at capture.
Chris Olave — anytime touchdown, opened +185 at Fanatics. Ten catches and 182 yards in Detroit without a touchdown. The model had no lean on this row at capture, and his receiving-yards line — the market that actually carries his Week 1 — had not posted. It is the first thing we check when it does.
Where the model held in Week 1
Pre-kickoff leans that did not flip and won:
- Derrick Henry over 91.5 rushing plus receiving yards (163).
- Lamar Jackson over 220.5 passing yards (324).
- Tyler Shough over 34.5 attempts (56) and over 21.5 completions (35).
- Tyler Shough under 18.5 rushing yards (8).
- Travis Etienne under 57.5 rushing yards (46).
Prediction stance
Henry to score at -200 is the play, and the only line in this game the model leans on (confidence 62). His 82.5 rushing yards and Shough’s 19.5 rushing yards both have Week 1 evidence behind them but no model score yet; Olave’s yardage line was not posted at capture. No spread or total was in the Monday capture, so no side is asserted here.
FAQ
What time is Saints vs Ravens in Week 2?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. ET — New Orleans at Baltimore.
What is the best Saints vs Ravens prop?
Derrick Henry anytime touchdown at -200 — the model leans over (confidence 62) on the Monday opener after three touchdowns on 24 carries in Week 1.
Should I bet Chris Olave to score?
The model had no lean on his +185 price at capture. He caught 10 for 182 last week without a touchdown; his receiving-yards line is the better place to look once it posts.
Live board
Every number above is a Monday opener. The live NFL board carries the current price across the books it tracks and the model’s confidence on both sides. Not a member? Start a monthly plan.
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