Week 2 — Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, Sunday, September 20, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET. All lines are Monday, September 14 openers. They move; re-check the NFL board before betting.
Neither of these teams was in a shootout in Week 1 — New England’s game produced 23 points, Pittsburgh’s 33. The Patriots lost 13–10 in Seattle on opening night: Drake Maye completed 23 of 33 for 178 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions, ran seven times for 47, and Rhamondre Stevenson carried 18 times for 51 without scoring. The Steelers beat Atlanta 20–13 on 40 Aaron Rodgers attempts (24 completions, 221 yards, one touchdown), with Jaylen Warren (10 carries, 46 yards) out-producing Rico Dowdle (8 for 15) and Pat Freiermuth catching all five targets for 46 and the touchdown.
What Week 1 told us
Pittsburgh threw 40 times and hit its passing over — Rodgers’s 212.5 cleared by nine. Michael Pittman (3 of 3, 58) had the biggest receiving day; DK Metcalf caught 4 of 10 for 40 and the model’s under on his 48.5 held. The backfield split went Warren’s way in both touches and yards, and the model was on the right side of both: Warren over 42.5 rushing (46), Dowdle under 45.5 (15).
New England managed 10 points on 33 pass attempts and 18 Stevenson carries. Mack Hollins (4 of 5, 51) led the receivers; A.J. Brown caught 3 of 4 for 26 and Hunter Henry 3 of 3 for 26. Stevenson’s rushing under on 57.5 held; his 5-for-44 receiving day was the more productive half of his afternoon.
Players to target
A line only carries a model lean when one side’s confidence reached 60 at capture, and nothing in this game cleared that bar on Monday. What follows is the opener and the Week 1 evidence — no side is attributed to the model.
- Drake Maye — passing yards, opened 227.5. He threw for 178 on 33 attempts in Seattle, and Pittsburgh just held Atlanta’s passing game to 143 yards; the opener is priced 50 above his Week 1. No model score on this single-book opener.
- Aaron Rodgers — rushing yards, opened 0.5. Minus-3 rushing yards in Week 1, and the under on the same 0.5 held. No model score on this single-book opener.
- Jaylen Warren — rushing yards, opened 40.5. His 46 yards on 10 carries cleared last week’s 42.5 over, and the opener has come down two; Dowdle’s (41.5) is priced within a yard of it despite 15 yards on eight carries. Neither back’s line carried a model score at capture.
- Drake Maye — rushing yards, opened 26.5. Seven carries for 47 on opening night, the most productive part of his evening. Priced 20 under that. No model score on this single-book opener.
The line to respect
Rhamondre Stevenson — anytime touchdown, opened -115 at Fanatics. The model is close to a coin flip here (55 on the yes side). Eighteen carries and five catches without a score, on an offense that produced 10 points — the Week 1 evidence argues against a favorite price, and the model is a coin flip on it. The other New England touchdown prices, DK Metcalf (+340) and Hunter Henry (+300), carried no model lean at capture.
Where the model held in Week 1
Pre-kickoff leans that did not flip and won:
- Aaron Rodgers over 212.5 passing yards (221) and under 0.5 rushing yards (-3).
- Pat Freiermuth over 28.5 receiving yards (46).
- Jaylen Warren over 42.5 rushing yards (46) and over 66.5 rushing plus receiving yards (73).
- Rico Dowdle under 45.5 rushing yards (15).
- DK Metcalf under 48.5 receiving yards (40).
- Rhamondre Stevenson under 57.5 rushing yards (51).
- Mack Hollins over 8.5 receiving yards (51).
Prediction stance
No line in this game carried a model lean on the Monday openers. The Week 1 evidence points under on Maye’s passing yards and on the Stevenson touchdown price, and toward Warren over Dowdle in the Pittsburgh backfield — but the closest the model comes is a coin flip on Stevenson. No spread or total was in the Monday capture.
FAQ
What time is Steelers vs Patriots in Week 2?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. ET — Pittsburgh at New England.
What is the best Steelers vs Patriots prop?
Nothing in this game carried a model lean on the Monday openers. Drake Maye’s 227.5 passing yards is priced 50 above his Week 1, and Aaron Rodgers’s 0.5 rushing yards follows a minus-3 day — evidence, not model leans.
Should I bet Rhamondre Stevenson to score?
The model is close to a coin flip on his -115 price (55 on the yes side). He had 23 touches in Week 1 without a touchdown on an offense that scored 10 points.
Live board
Every number above is a Monday opener. The live NFL board carries the current price across the books it tracks and the model’s confidence on both sides. Not a member? Start a monthly plan.
Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
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