Another MLS shots prop on the July 22 board is Steven Moreira Over 0.5 Shots (Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC, 7:30 PM ET). As with the Messi prop, the model read is pending — no Confidence or Edge Score yet — so this is a form-and-price note, and an honest one: the recent form is poor.
The Honest Read on Moreira Over 0.5 Shots
A 0.5 line only asks for a single shot, which sounds trivial, but Moreira is a defender and the history reflects that. He has cleared it in just one of his last five, four of his last ten, 33% of his last twenty, and 33% on the season, averaging exactly 0.5 shots a game. The market has it close to a coin flip — FanDuel +100 against 1xBet -125 — and the model has not weighed in. On the numbers alone this is a weak lean at best; it is included for completeness, not as a recommendation.
The Market Number
Best available is FanDuel +100 (even money) on the Over. At even money you need 50% and his history sits at 33%, so the price is not doing you any favors either. Wait for the model read to populate before treating this as anything more than a low-conviction market note.
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