Trey Murphy III higher 4.5 rebounds is a play tonight when Denver visits New Orleans at 8:00 PM ET. Pinnacle has it at -129, which implies 56.3%. PropsBot puts the Confidence Score at 60.7, a Confidence Gap of +4.7 points in your favor.
The price has shortened since the early board. At 6 AM ET it was -118 at Bally Bet with a Confidence Score of 60.3 and a Gap of +5.9. The model has barely moved, but the book got more expensive, and that took about a point off the Gap. It is still a positive number and the pick still stands. It is just a little less generous than it was.
The case for higher 4.5
Murphy has cleared 5 rebounds in 8 of his last 10, 80%. The 20-game rate is 70% and the season rate is 67%, so this is not one hot week. Against Denver the head-to-head sample is 75%. The model does not take the recent run at face value either. Line them up: 80% across the last 10, 70% across 20, 67% on the season, and a Confidence Score of 60.7. The model lands below every one of them, which is the kind of discount you want from a number you are paying -129 to trust.
At -129 you need to win 56.3% of the time to break even. The Confidence Score says he gets there more often than that, by more than four points. That is a solid lean, not a lock.
What could go wrong
His last five games are the softer stretch at 60%, so he has cooled a touch from the 10-game number. Rebounds are also a volume prop: a short night from foul trouble or a blowout and 5 becomes a reach. The board only lists 4.5 for him, so there is no alternate line to move to. If your book is hanging 5.5, that is a different bet and the numbers above do not apply to it.
How to play it
- Pick: Trey Murphy III higher 4.5 rebounds.
- Price: -129 at Pinnacle. Implied 56.3%.
- Confidence Score: 60.7. Confidence Gap +4.7.
- Last 10 at 5+ rebounds: 8 of 10.
A price of -140 implies 58.3%, which would cut the cushion to about two points, so shop it before you settle for worse than -129. The live number is on the PropsBot board.
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