The Home Run Lab top model target today, Saturday, August 22, 2026, is Yordan Alvarez (HOU · LHB). The card prints ELITE at 21% model confidence vs Oakland and Jacob Lopez (LHP) at 7:10 PM ET. The table ranks him #1 at 21.6% over Shohei Ohtani at 20.7%. Card inputs: BAT 76.1, HH L7 5, EV100 10, wind 8 mph, pitcher grade STINGY.
Ohtani (LAD · LHB) is the #2 card at 21% (AVG vs Jared Jones RHP, 7:15 PM ET, BAT 74.7, HH L7 10, EV100 15, wind 4 mph). He remains the separate Hits 0.5 board prop.
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Why Alvarez is tonight’s #1 Home Run Lab signal
Cards round both Alvarez and Ohtani to 21%. The lab’s table is the tiebreak: Alvarez 21.6%, Ohtani 20.7%. Alvarez is listed ELITE vs a left-handed starter tagged STINGY. BAT 76.1 is the highest of the two 21% cards. HH L7 5 and EV100 10 are quieter than Ohtani’s 10 / 15. The ranking still puts Houston first.
| Input | Lab |
|---|---|
| Market | Home Run Lab #1 (model HR%) |
| Model (card) | 21% ELITE |
| Model (table) | 21.6% (#1 vs Ohtani 20.7%) |
| Team / bats | HOU · LHB |
| Matchup | vs OAK · Jacob Lopez (L) · 7:10 PM ET |
| Pitcher grade | STINGY |
| BAT | 76.1 |
| HH L7 | 5 |
| EV100 | 10 |
| Wind | 8 mph |
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More MLB picks today — August 22, 2026
Saturday’s other published MLB board reads: Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits · Brett Callahan 3+ Hits+Runs+RBIs · Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts. WNBA: Breanna Stewart Over 0.5 Threes. Full slate scoring stays on the PropsBot dashboard.
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