The top NHL pick today, Saturday, May 16, 2026, is Zach Benson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (BUF @ MTL, 8:10 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 54.8% Confidence with a 3.8% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits 4 points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: FanDuel -144.
Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 8:10 PM ET puck drop.
| Window | Hit Rate | Sportsbook | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L5 / L10 / L20 | 20% / 30% / 50% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -144 |
| Season | 50% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -144 |
| H2H vs MTL | 58% | FanDuel | 1.5 SOG | -144 |
Is Zach Benson a good Over 1.5 Shots on Goal bet vs Montreal on May 16?
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Why Zach Benson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal vs Montreal?
The matchup is doing the heavy lifting. Montreal is conceding 27.8 shots against per game and bleeds power-play time (10.4 Opp PIM/Gm) — that’s structure-of-game support for any Buffalo skater who actually shoots. The H2H number tells you Benson personally fires on the Habs: 58% over rate vs MTL specifically, well clear of his 50% season baseline. The 3.8% Edge Score reflects the gap between the 59% implied at -144 and the model’s 63% on the over. Confidence Score lands at 54.8% — Moderate Confidence, dragged down by a soft L5 of 20%.
Historical Performance at 1.5 Shots on Goal
The trend chart isn’t pretty. L5 at 20%, L10 at 30% — he’s been below the line in 7 of his last 10. L20 climbs to 50%, which says the recent slump is real but new. Where this pick gets interesting is the head-to-head: 58% vs Montreal, the highest of any matchup in his book. Buffalo also generates a top-10 team rate at 28.1 shots per game, so Benson’s 15.9 minutes of ice time projects to plenty of shot volume regardless of the recent dip.
Matchup Context: BUF @ MTL
Montreal allows 3.1 goals per game, gives up 27.8 shots, and blocks 16.2 — mid-tier defensive shot suppression. Their 10.4 PIM/Gm is the lever: power-play time inflates everyone’s shot count, and Buffalo runs Benson on PP2. Game total at 6.5 is medium-paced, which fits a SOG bet better than a goals or assists bet. Corsi/60 of 11.2 is league-average for a winger; that’s not a red flag for this line size.
Best Line Available
FanDuel at -144 is the top price tracked. Implied probability 59%. The model has 63% on the over, which produces the 3.8% Edge after vig. Other books are clustered in the -140 to -150 range. Don’t pay past -150.
How PropsBot Grades NHL Shots on Goal Picks
Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from NHL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.
How PropsBot Models NHL Shots on Goal Props
Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.
More NHL Player Props — May 16, 2026
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Glossary — key terms in this pick
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Sources & Verification
- Career stats: Zach Benson on NHL.com
- Advanced metrics: Corsi and shot generation on Hockey-Reference
- Game info: Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens on May 16, 2026
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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of May 16, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.
Today’s Other AI Picks — May 16, 2026
- Payton Tolle Over 4.5 Strikeouts (MLB)
- Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 Walks (MLB)
- José Ramírez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (MLB)
See every PropsBot NHL daily pick (newest first): /category/nhl-picks/
