NFL Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:25 p.m. ET · Broncos at 49ers
Broncos vs 49ers kicks off Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 p.m. ET with a board total of 46.5 and San Francisco a 2.5-point favorite. The model’s one read is Christian McCaffrey to score an anytime touchdown at a confidence of 63; the rest of the top-scored card sits below 60.
David’s touchdown pick for this game: Christian McCaffrey (−186). Prices as quoted in his Week 4 touchdown video. Every game’s TD pick and his 2+ list →
The line
At the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET board capture, the game total was 46.5 and the spread stamp read Broncos +2.5, making San Francisco a 2.5-point favorite. The board carried 131 props for this game, 28 with a model score. Lines move until kickoff; the live NFL board has current numbers.
Model reads
The six highest-scored props on this card at capture. PropsBot counts a prop as a read only at a confidence of 60 or higher. One of the six clears it.
| Player | Prop | Price (book) | Confidence | 60+ read? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | Anytime TD (Yes) | −185 Fanatics | 63 | Read |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +130 BetOnline.ag | 54 | No (below 60) |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +120 Fanatics | 44 | No (below 60) |
| George Kittle (SF) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +150 BetOnline.ag | 38 | No (below 60) |
| Mike Evans (SF) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +180 BetOnline.ag | 34 | No (below 60) |
| Jaylen Waddle (DEN) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +250 Fanatics | 31 | No (below 60) |
Matchup context
Denver’s run defense is the weakest in the league by EPA per rush play through Week 3. It allows 143.7 rushing yards per game (third-most), and running backs have 389 rushing yards against it, second-most — the defense McCaffrey faces. Denver does have 4 interceptions, tied for the most. San Francisco’s defense has allowed 16.7 points per game, tied for third-fewest, and no touchdowns to tight ends.
Defense figures: 2026 season through Week 3 (nflverse play-by-play).
Other props on the card
Only 28 of 131 props on the board for this game carry a model score, and the top six are all anytime touchdowns. Behind McCaffrey (−185 Fanatics): Deebo Samuel of San Francisco at 54 (+130 BetOnline.ag), J.K. Dobbins 44 (+120 Fanatics), George Kittle 38 (+150 BetOnline.ag), Mike Evans 34 (+180 BetOnline.ag) and Jaylen Waddle 31 (+250 Fanatics). None of those is a read.
FAQ
What is the best Broncos vs 49ers player prop?
Christian McCaffrey anytime TD at a confidence of 63, priced -185 at Fanatics at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture. It is the only prop on the card at 60 or higher.
Is Deebo Samuel an anytime TD read?
No. Samuel’s anytime TD scores 54 at +130 (BetOnline.ag), six points under the 60 bar.
What are the Broncos vs 49ers spread and total?
Total 46.5 and a spread stamp of Broncos +2.5, so San Francisco is a 2.5-point favorite at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture.
More Week 4: NFL Week 4 picks · anytime touchdown scorer picks · NFL defense rankings · defense vs position · live NFL board
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