NFL Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 9:30 a.m. ET · Colts at Commanders
Colts vs Commanders kicks off Sunday, October 4 at 9:30 a.m. ET with a board total of 47 and Indianapolis a 3.5-point favorite. The model’s strongest read is Jonathan Taylor to score an anytime touchdown at a confidence of 67, one of four props on this card that clear the 60 bar.
David’s touchdown pick for this game: Jonathan Taylor, with Terry McLaurin (+265) for Washington. Prices as quoted in his Week 4 touchdown video. Every game’s TD pick and his 2+ list →
The line
At the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET board capture, the game total was 47 and the spread stamp read Colts −3.5, making Indianapolis a 3.5-point favorite. The board carried 216 props for this game, 112 with a model score. Lines move until kickoff; the live NFL board has current numbers.
Model reads
The six highest-scored props on this card at capture. PropsBot counts a prop as a read only at a confidence of 60 or higher. Four of the six clear it.
| Player | Prop | Price (book) | Confidence | 60+ read? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | Anytime TD (Yes) | −235 BetMGM | 67 | Read |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | Over 34.5 longest completion | −125 Fliff | 66 | Read |
| Marcus Mariota (WAS) | Over 34.5 longest completion | −125 Fliff | 64 | Read |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | Under 17.5 longest rush | −115 Fliff | 62 | Read |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | Under 0.5 interceptions thrown | −117 betPARX | 59 | No (below 60) |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | Under 20.5 rush attempts | −125 Fliff | 59 | No (below 60) |
Matchup context
Washington’s pass defense is the soft spot in the numbers: 280.3 passing yards allowed per game (second-most) and 11 passing TDs allowed to quarterbacks, the most in the league through Week 3. That backs Daniel Jones Over 34.5 longest completion (66). Indianapolis has allowed 417.3 total yards per game, the most in the league, and has yet to intercept a pass — the defense behind Marcus Mariota’s matching Over 34.5 (64). The Taylor touchdown read runs into Washington’s run defense: 82.0 rushing yards allowed per game (third-fewest) and no running back touchdowns allowed yet.
Defense figures: 2026 season through Week 3 (nflverse play-by-play).
Other props on the card
Two Colts props sit just under the bar: Taylor Under 20.5 rush attempts at 59 (−125 Fliff) and Jones Under 0.5 interceptions at 59 (−117 betPARX). Close, but below 60 means no read. Taylor Under 17.5 longest rush (62, −115 Fliff) does clear, so the model’s two Taylor reads are a touchdown and an under on his longest run. The board scored 112 of 216 props for this game.
FAQ
What time is Colts vs Commanders?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 9:30 a.m. ET. At the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture the board total was 47 and the spread stamp was Colts -3.5.
What is the best Colts vs Commanders player prop?
Jonathan Taylor anytime TD at a confidence of 67, priced -235 at BetMGM at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture. It is the highest-scored of four props on this card at 60 or above.
Why do both quarterbacks have longest-completion overs?
Both score above 60: Daniel Jones Over 34.5 at 66 and Marcus Mariota Over 34.5 at 64, each -125 at Fliff. Both defenses have allowed big passing numbers through Week 3: Washington 280.3 passing yards per game and Indianapolis 276.0.
More Week 4: NFL Week 4 picks · anytime touchdown scorer picks · NFL defense rankings · defense vs position · live NFL board
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