Is Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 Strikeouts a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Michael McGreevy strikeouts prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Michael McGreevy's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best strikeouts for Michael McGreevy's Under prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 Strikeouts — MLB Picks Today, July 23

By David

Published July 23, 2026

The top MLB pick today, Thursday, July 23, 2026, is Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 Strikeouts (ARI @ STL, 5:16 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 61.6% Confidence with a 7.1% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits about seven points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: BetMGM -140.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 5:16 PM ET first pitch.

Window	Under Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	40% / 50% / 55%	BetMGM	3.5 Strikeouts	-140
Season	55%	BetMGM	3.5 Strikeouts	-140
H2H vs STL	50%	BetMGM	3.5 Strikeouts	-140

Is Michael McGreevy a good Under 3.5 Strikeouts bet vs the Diamondbacks on July 23?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Thursday, July 23, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

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Why Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs the Diamondbacks?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 61.6% Confidence Score to Michael McGreevy under 3.5 Strikeouts tonight. That threshold qualifies as Moderate Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 7.1% Edge Score, with a +3.3% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

McGreevy doesn’t miss bats. A 5.9 K/9, a 16.6% strikeout rate, 8.7% swinging strikes — three red marks sitting on the same card. He works to contact instead: 47.0% grounders, 5.7 innings a start on 88.5 pitches. That is a pitcher who gets outs, not whiffs. PropsBot’s Confidence Score lands at 61.6% on the Under, and the 7.1% Edge Score is the widest gap anywhere on today’s slate. The Conf Gap reads +3.3%, the only positive one on the board.

Historical Performance at 3.5 Strikeouts

The hit-rate row always tracks the Over, so flip every number to read this pick. 60% at L5 means the Under 3.5 Strikeouts cashed 2 of his last 5. L10 sits at 50% — five of ten. Stretch to L20 and the Under is 11 of 20. Season-long the Over clears 45%, which puts the Under at 55%. Head-to-head splits dead even. This isn’t a streak play. It’s a rate play, and the rate has held all year.

Matchup Context: ARI @ STL

Arizona whiffs 20.2% of the time and makes contact at 77.2% — nothing in that profile turns a contact pitcher into a strikeout arm. They do chase at 28.7%, the one number cutting toward the Over, and on its own it isn’t enough. PropsBot passed the opponent block 0 of 3. First pitch 5:16 PM ET.

Best Line Available

BetMGM has the best of it at -140, implied 58%. The model sits roughly seven points north of that. On a -140 line those few ticks are most of your margin, so shop it before you fire.

How PropsBot Grades MLB Strikeouts Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Strikeouts Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — July 23, 2026

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Glossary — key terms in this pick

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Michael McGreevy on MLB.com
Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Michael McGreevy
Game info: ARI at STL on July 23, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — July 23, 2026

See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of July 23, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

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Tagged AI Picks, Michael McGreevy, MLB, MLB Picks Today, Player Props, Strikeouts