Is Randy Dobnak Over 2.5 Earned Runs a good bet today?

PropsBot's AI scores this Randy Dobnak earned runs prop using a Confidence Score (0-100, model agreement) and an Edge Score (gap between modeled probability and sportsbook implied probability). The article above details Randy Dobnak's recent form, the matchup against today's opponent, and the best available odds across major sportsbooks. Read the full breakdown before placing any bet.

What is the best earned runs for Randy Dobnak's Over prop?

The article lists current sportsbook odds — typical books include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, Novig (sports exchange), and Hard Rock Bet (Ohio). The best price moves throughout the day; the article reflects the line live at publish time. Always line-shop before placing a bet.

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Randy Dobnak Over 2.5 Earned Runs — MLB Picks Today, July 23

By David

Published July 23, 2026

Also on the MLB slate today, an MLB pick today, Thursday, July 23, 2026, is Randy Dobnak Over 2.5 Earned Runs (KC @ DET, 6:41 PM ET). PropsBot’s AI rates the pick at 52.1% Confidence with a 2.5% Edge Score, meaning the modeled probability sits two and a half points above the implied probability priced into the market. Best available price: HRB -145.

Below is the full breakdown — Confidence Score, Edge Score, sportsbook odds comparison, and historical hit rate data — so you can make a data-backed decision before the 6:41 PM ET first pitch.

Window	Over Hit Rate	Sportsbook	Line	Odds
L5 / L10 / L20	0% / 0% / 0%	HRB	2.5 Earned Runs	-145
Season	0%	HRB	2.5 Earned Runs	-145
H2H vs DET	0%	HRB	2.5 Earned Runs	-145

Is Randy Dobnak a good Over 2.5 Earned Runs bet vs Detroit on July 23?

By David Reilich, Founder of PropsBot.AI · Last updated Thursday, July 23, 2026 · Methodology · Editorial standards

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Why Randy Dobnak Over 2.5 Earned Runs vs Detroit?

PropsBot’s AI models assigned a 52.1% Confidence Score to Randy Dobnak over 2.5 Earned Runs tonight. That threshold qualifies as Moderate Confidence in PropsBot’s framework. The pick carries a 2.5% Edge Score, with a -7.1% Confidence Gap between modeled and implied probability.

This one is a regression bet and PropsBot doesn’t dress it up. Randy Dobnak’s ERA reads 1.93. Every estimator underneath it says that number is borrowed: 5.72 FIP, 5.65 SIERA, 5.60 xERA. He is stranding 98.9% of the runners who reach him, and nobody holds a mark like that. The pitcher block passed 3 of 9. Confidence Score 52.1%, Edge Score 2.5%, and a -7.1% Conf Gap that tells you the model isn’t in love with it either.

Historical Performance at 2.5 Earned Runs

Be straight about this one: the Over on 2.5 Earned Runs has not cleared once. L5, L10, L20, head-to-head, season — every window reads 0%. He pitches in relief and usually doesn’t stay out there long enough to surrender three. The case for the Over isn’t his game log, it’s the gap between a 1.93 ERA and a 5.65 SIERA, plus an opponent that scores. If you need history on your side, this isn’t your bet.

Matchup Context: KC @ DET

Detroit is putting up 7.03 runs a game and that is the number PropsBot flagged green in the opponent block. The rest of their profile argues the other way — a .686 team OPS and a 91.9 wRC+ read like a league-average offense. The run output says otherwise. Both things are on the card; take them as the split read they are. First pitch 6:41 PM ET.

Best Line Available

HRB posts -145, implied 59%, against a modeled 61.5%. A two-and-a-half point edge on a bet whose game log is 0-for-everything. Size it accordingly.

How PropsBot Grades MLB Earned Runs Picks

Every PropsBot pick is graded the morning after the game by an automated result-tracker that pulls box-score data from MLB.com / NHL.com / NBA.com / NFL.com and marks the pick Hit, Miss, Push, or Voided (for player non-appearance). The graded outcome is appended to the post via a green/red callout block, and the per-pick history is published at Performance Methodology. Every entry includes the date, line, book, and graded outcome — nothing is retroactively edited.

How PropsBot Models MLB Earned Runs Props

Multiple AI models score the prop, then their consensus is summarized into a single Confidence Score and an Edge Score — full methodology at /performance-methodology/.

More MLB Player Props — July 23, 2026

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Sources & Verification

Career stats: Randy Dobnak on MLB.com
Advanced metrics: Statcast page for Randy Dobnak
Game info: KC at DET on July 23, 2026

Today’s Other AI Picks — July 23, 2026

See every PropsBot MLB daily pick (newest first): /category/mlb-picks/

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PropsBot is a research and analytics tool — not a picks service. Picks reflect AI model output as of July 23, 2026 and may be updated; see our Corrections Policy for how we handle changes after publication. Odds are subject to change.

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Tagged AI Picks, Earned Runs, MLB, MLB Picks Today, Player Props, Randy Dobnak