NFL Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Packers at Buccaneers
Packers vs Buccaneers kicks off Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 p.m. ET with a board total of 39.5 and Green Bay a 4-point favorite. There is no 60+ read on this card: the model’s top-scored prop is Bucky Irving to score an anytime touchdown at 47, and nothing else reaches 40.
David’s touchdown pick for this game: Christian Watson (+180). Prices as quoted in his Week 4 touchdown video. Every game’s TD pick and his 2+ list →
The line
At the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET board capture, the game total was 39.5 and the spread stamp read Packers -4, making Green Bay a 4-point favorite. The board carried 203 props for this game, 24 with a model score. Lines move until kickoff; the live NFL board has current numbers.
Model reads
The six highest-scored props on this card at capture. PropsBot counts a prop as a read only at a confidence of 60 or higher. None of the six clears it, so this card has no read.
| Player | Prop | Price (book) | Confidence | 60+ read? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving (TB) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +120 BetOnline.ag | 47 | No (below 60) |
| Christian Watson (GB) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +160 Fanatics | 37 | No (below 60) |
| Matthew Golden (GB) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +220 Fanatics | 29 | No (below 60) |
| MarShawn Lloyd (GB) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +200 BetOnline.ag | 29 | No (below 60) |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +270 BetOnline.ag | 28 | No (below 60) |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | Anytime TD (Yes) | +270 BetOnline.ag | 27 | No (below 60) |
Matchup context
Green Bay has allowed 30.3 points per game (tied for third-most), 379 rushing yards to running backs (third-most) and 6 running back touchdowns, second-most in the league. Opponents have scored touchdowns on 10 of 12 red-zone trips against the Packers. That is the defense Irving faces. Tampa Bay’s run defense points the other way at 76.0 rushing yards allowed per game, second-fewest, which is what MarShawn Lloyd (29) runs into.
Defense figures: 2026 season through Week 3 (nflverse play-by-play).
Other props on the card
Only 24 of 203 props on the board for this game carry a model score. Behind Irving (+120 BetOnline.ag): Christian Watson 37 (+160 Fanatics), Matthew Golden 29 (+220 Fanatics), Lloyd 29 (+200 BetOnline.ag), Tucker Kraft 28 (+270 BetOnline.ag) and Emeka Egbuka 27 (+270 BetOnline.ag). None is a read. Only two Week 4 games carry a lower board total than this one’s 39.5.
FAQ
Is there a PropsBot pick for Packers vs Buccaneers?
Not at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture. The top-scored prop is Bucky Irving anytime TD at 47 (+120 at BetOnline.ag), well below the 60 bar.
How has Green Bay’s defense played against running backs?
Through Week 3 the Packers have allowed 379 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns to running backs, both among the three highest totals in the league. The model still scores Irving’s anytime TD at 47, not a read.
What are the Packers vs Buccaneers spread and total?
Total 39.5 and a spread stamp of Packers -4, so Green Bay is a 4-point favorite at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture.
More Week 4: NFL Week 4 picks · anytime touchdown scorer picks · NFL defense rankings · defense vs position · live NFL board
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