NFL Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Patriots at Bills
Patriots vs Bills kicks off Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 p.m. ET with a board total of 48.5 and Buffalo a 6.5-point favorite. There is no 60+ read on this card: the model’s top-scored prop, James Cook to score an anytime touchdown, sits at 59, one point below the bar.
The line
At the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET board capture, the game total was 48.5 and the spread stamp read Patriots +6.5, making Buffalo a 6.5-point favorite. The board carried 194 props for this game, 38 with a model score. Lines move until kickoff; the live NFL board has current numbers.
Model reads
The six highest-scored props on this card at capture. PropsBot counts a prop as a read only at a confidence of 60 or higher. None of the six clears it, so this card has no read.
| Player | Prop | Price (book) | Confidence | 60+ read? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF) | Anytime TD (Yes) | −145 BetMGM | 59 | No (below 60) |
| Tyler Bass (BUF) | Over 7.5 kicking points | −145 Fliff | 57 | No (below 60) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | Under 1.5 passing TDs | −154 DraftKings | 55 | No (below 60) |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | Anytime TD (Yes) | −115 DraftKings | 53 | No (below 60) |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | Over 1.5 passing TDs | −145 BetOnline.ag | 53 | No (below 60) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | Over 227.5 passing yards | −111 DraftKings | 52 | No (below 60) |
Matchup context
New England has allowed 170.0 passing yards per game, second-fewest, and 51 points in three games, sixth-fewest. That is the defense Josh Allen faces, and his Over 1.5 passing TDs scores only 53. Buffalo has been more generous: 254.3 passing yards allowed per game (sixth-most), 7 passing TDs to quarterbacks (tied for fourth-most) and 5 running back touchdowns, third-most. Even so, the model scores Drake Maye Under 1.5 passing TDs (55) above his Over 227.5 passing yards (52).
Defense figures: 2026 season through Week 3 (nflverse play-by-play).
Other props on the card
Nothing on this card is a read. In order: Cook anytime TD 59 (−145 BetMGM), Tyler Bass Over 7.5 kicking points 57 (−145 Fliff), Maye Under 1.5 passing TDs 55 (−154 DraftKings), Allen anytime TD 53 (−115 DraftKings), Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs 53 (−145 BetOnline.ag) and Maye Over 227.5 passing yards 52 (−111 DraftKings). The board scored 38 of 194 props for this game; scores move with prices, so check the live board before kickoff.
FAQ
Is there a PropsBot pick for Patriots vs Bills?
Not at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture. The top-scored prop is James Cook anytime TD at 59 (-145 at BetMGM), below the 60 bar PropsBot uses for a read.
What are the Patriots vs Bills spread and total?
Total 48.5 and a spread stamp of Patriots +6.5, so Buffalo is a 6.5-point favorite at the Tuesday, Sep 29, 3:12 p.m. ET capture.
Does the model like Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns?
Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs scores 53 at -145 (BetOnline.ag), not a read. New England has allowed 170.0 passing yards per game, second-fewest in the league through Week 3.
More Week 4: NFL Week 4 picks · anytime touchdown scorer picks · NFL defense rankings · defense vs position · live NFL board
Track record, with sample sizes: PropsBot performance ledger.
Model output is research, not a guarantee. 21+.
Get every AI pick, Confidence Score, and prop edge on PropsBot.
See Today’s AI Picks