From David’s touchdown video, recorded Wednesday evening, September 30, 2026. Prices are as quoted at recording and move quickly once the video is out — check the live anytime touchdown board before you bet.
One player to score in every Week 4 game, plus David’s 2+ touchdown list. These are the headline calls, at the prices he saw:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba−105
- Josh Allen−112
- Christian McCaffrey−186
- Brock Bowers+210
- Puka Nacua+140
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Derrick Henry
- CeeDee Lamb
- Jonathan Taylor
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Proof, not promisesRecent touchdown hits: 888x and 153x
David’s three-leg “2+ touchdowns” parlay. He took the cash-out in the third quarter, and every leg still got there, per the box scores:
- Ja’Marr Chase vs Houston2 TDs
- CeeDee Lamb vs Washington2 TDs
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs Arizona3 TDs
The ticket that became a strategy
That 888x didn’t come from nowhere. The thinking behind it became the PropsBot 2+ touchdown parlay strategy, which now lives inside the members’ Discord, next to David’s updated 2+ list each week.
We don’t publish the rules here. Members get them.
Get the 2+ TD strategy → see PropsBot plansIndividual results, not typical. Most multi-leg touchdown parlays lose, and neither ticket counts toward PropsBot’s graded record — the model’s record, sport by sport, is on the public ledger. 21+.
Week 4 cardEvery game’s touchdown pick at a glance
| Game | David’s pick | Price | Next option |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at Browns | Harold Fannin Jr. | +290 | Jaylen Warren +108 |
| Colts vs Commanders | Jonathan Taylor | — | Terry McLaurin +265 |
| Titans at Ravens | Derrick Henry | — | Zay Flowers |
| Jaguars at Bengals | Ja’Marr Chase | plus money | Bhayshul Tuten +105 |
| Patriots at Bills | Josh Allen | −112 | James Cook |
| Jets at Bears | Luther Burden III | +225 | Braelon Allen (2+ list) |
| Cowboys at Texans | CeeDee Lamb | — | Nico Collins +165, if healthy |
| Rams at Eagles | Puka Nacua | +140 | — |
| Cardinals at Giants | Cam Skattebo | −135 | Trey McBride +150 |
| Packers at Buccaneers | Christian Watson | +180 | — |
| Dolphins at Vikings | Justin Jefferson (if healthy) | +140 | Jordan Addison +150 |
| Chiefs at Raiders | Brock Bowers | +210 | Kenneth Walker III −165 |
| Broncos at 49ers | Christian McCaffrey | −186 | Jaylen Waddle |
| Chargers at Seahawks | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | −105 | — |
| Lions at Panthers | Amon-Ra St. Brown | — | Tetairoa McMillan |
| Falcons at Saints | Juwan Johnson | +250 | Chris Olave |
A dash means David named the player without quoting a price.
The reasoningGame-by-game touchdown picks
Steelers at Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. +290
A 38.5-point total makes this a tough game to target, so David goes for price: Fannin scored twice last week, owns a 22.3% target share and draws a soft matchup.
Next: Jaylen Warren at +108, the top touchdown score in the game (50), with the backfield to himself now that Rico Dowdle is out. Quinshon Judkins faces the league’s stingiest defense against running-back touchdowns. Full TNF preview
Colts vs Commanders
Jonathan Taylor
The top play on the board: 1.5 carries inside the 5 per game over his last four, a 25.5-point team total, and a Washington defense among the six worst against running-back touchdowns.
Washington side: Terry McLaurin at +265 after scoring last week.
Titans at Ravens
Derrick Henry
Even at a short price: he has scored in every game, with a three-touchdown day and two last week, on a team implied for 27 points against 15.5.
Next: Zay Flowers, with Lamar Jackson for value and Carnell Tate at +370 as a long shot.
Jaguars at Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase plus money
One of the best touchdown games of the week. The model’s top score is Chase Brown (58), but David takes Chase (49): two straight games with a score and a 30.8% target share.
Next: Bhayshul Tuten at +105 — David has the Jaguars winning outright. Tee Higgins at +160 over Parker Washington at +150.
Patriots at Bills
Josh Allen −112
Two touchdowns in every game this season, on a team implied for 27.5 points. Contingent on the knee he banged last week.
Next: James Cook.
Jets at Bears
Luther Burden III +225
A long shot in a 43-point game, after Case Keenum made him his favourite target last week.
Sneaky: Braelon Allen makes the 2+ list if Breece Hall sits.
Cowboys at Texans
CeeDee Lamb
A 25.2% target share and one of the three legs of the Week 2 +88,725 parlay. The model prefers Javonte Williams (58, −127) despite a tough matchup.
Houston side: Nico Collins at +165 only if his hamstring allows a full workload; otherwise David Montgomery. Jake Ferguson is the second Dallas option.
Rams at Eagles
Puka Nacua +140
Probable to return and likely to be fed. David is done with Saquon Barkley after last week.
Cardinals at Giants
Cam Skattebo −135
The confidence score agrees. Two weeks without a score, against a defense allowing the fourth-most running-back touchdowns. Watch Malik Nabers’ status.
Arizona side: Trey McBride at +150 (28% target share) over Jeremiyah Love (45, −118).
Packers at Buccaneers
Christian Watson +180
A low total with Baker Mayfield out — not a game to load up on. Bucky Irving tops the board (49) but is questionable.
Dolphins at Vikings
Justin Jefferson +140
If he plays healthy. If not, Jordan Addison at +150, the confidence score’s pick. Aaron Jones gets an honourable mention.
Chiefs at Raiders
Brock Bowers +210
A 25.2% target share, a score last week, and a game where Las Vegas likely throws from behind.
Next: Kenneth Walker III at −165, the top model score in the game (64 at recording). Pair him with McCaffrey for plus odds.
Broncos at 49ers
Christian McCaffrey −186
David’s favourite and the model’s (65 at recording). Jaylen Waddle can find the end zone too.
Chargers at Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba −105
A 35.4% target share — “another stratosphere.” David’s best play on the whole board.
Lions at Panthers
Amon-Ra St. Brown
He has scored in every game, and Carolina is missing two starting defensive backs. David prefers him to Jahmyr Gibbs on price.
Carolina side: Tetairoa McMillan, especially if Jalen Coker sits.
Falcons at Saints
Juwan Johnson +250
The value play. Chris Olave has the better matchup, Drake London can score, and Bijan Robinson is the likeliest scorer at a shorter price.
Long shotsDavid’s 2+ touchdown list
Players he thinks can realistically score twice once price is factored in, as of Wednesday evening (he updates the list in the Discord):
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Cam Skattebo
- Josh Allen
- Bhayshul Tuten
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Braelon Allen (if Breece Hall is out)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Nico Collins
- Brock Bowers
Kenneth Walker III misses the cut: +220 for two touchdowns isn’t enough value. Two-plus parlays are long shots by design — size them that way.
Model checkWhat the PropsBot model says
David’s picks weigh price and value. The model scores every prop from 0 to 100 and only calls a side a pick at 60 or higher. At the Tuesday, September 29 capture, six anytime touchdown props cleared that bar:
| Player | Game | Confidence | On David’s card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions at Panthers | 69 | Mentioned |
| Derrick Henry | Titans at Ravens | 69 | Yes |
| Jonathan Taylor | Colts vs Commanders | 67 | Yes |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs at Raiders | 65 | Yes |
| Christian McCaffrey | Broncos at 49ers | 63 | Yes |
| Bijan Robinson | Falcons at Saints | 62 | Mentioned |
His other picks, from Fannin Jr. (28) to Ja’Marr Chase (49), are his calls rather than model picks. Live scores and prices are on the anytime touchdown board; every game’s reads are on NFL Week 4 picks, and David’s sides and totals are in his Week 4 predictions breakdown.
FAQNFL Week 4 touchdown picks
Who are the best anytime touchdown picks for NFL Week 4?
David’s strongest: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (−105), Josh Allen (−112), Christian McCaffrey (−186), Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Derrick Henry, with Brock Bowers (+210) and Puka Nacua (+140) as plus-money plays.
Who could score 2+ touchdowns in Week 4?
His list: Ja’Marr Chase, Cam Skattebo, Josh Allen, Bhayshul Tuten, Tetairoa McMillan, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Braelon Allen, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins and Brock Bowers.
Which Week 4 touchdown props clear PropsBot’s 60 confidence bar?
At the Tuesday capture: Jahmyr Gibbs (69), Derrick Henry (69), Jonathan Taylor (67), Kenneth Walker III (65), Christian McCaffrey (63) and Bijan Robinson (62). Scores and prices move through the week.
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Picks are opinions and research, not guarantees. 21+ only; bet with money you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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