NFL Week 4 Predictions: Best Bets & Player Props for Every Game (Video Breakdown)

From David’s video recorded Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Lines and prices are as quoted at recording and will move before kickoff; check the live NFL picks before you bet.

NFL Week 4 predictions for every game: David goes game by game with who wins, by how much, and the player props he’s targeting. Headline calls: the Rams over the Eagles, the Jets to beat the Bears outright, Bills −6.5, Chiefs −4.5, the Broncos to win in San Francisco, and the overs in Lions–Panthers (50.5) and Falcons–Saints (48.5).

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NFL Week 4 Picks at a Glance

Game-by-Game NFL Week 4 Predictions

Colts vs Commanders (London): Colts

The Colts were 3.5-point favorites with a 47-point total at recording, with no home field in London. The swing factor is Jayden Daniels: he traveled with Washington but David leans toward him sitting, which would mean Marcus Mariota again after last week’s upset of Seattle. Pick: Colts win. Props: Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown (PropsBot confidence 67, one of the highest on the board; best price −235 at BetMGM at recording) and Terry McLaurin longest reception over 21.5, his favorite play here — McLaurin had a 26-yard catch in Week 2 and a 30-yarder last week on nine targets from Mariota. Colts vs Commanders preview

Cowboys at Texans: Cowboys, unless Nico Collins plays

Houston was a 2.5-point favorite (−133) with a 47.5 total. Dallas’s secondary is thin: Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant are out, Malik Hooker has a fractured forearm and DeMarvion Overshown’s hamstring is still an issue. Everything hinges on Nico Collins (hamstring). If Collins is out, David is on the Cowboys. If he plays, Cowboys +7.5 or pass on the side and play Collins instead: roughly 0.75 units on Collins 120+ receiving yards (or 100+) and 0.25 units on Collins 100+ yards plus a touchdown, so a big game cashes both and a good game still cashes one. Cowboys vs Texans preview

Rams at Eagles: Rams −3

Philadelphia is coming off a 27–7 prime-time loss and will be without Dallas Goedert (MCL sprain); DeVonta Smith is the one Eagle playing consistently. The Rams were −150 and three-point favorites. Pick: Rams −3 — David sees a statement game. Prop: Matthew Stafford over 247.5 passing yards, especially if Puka Nacua returns. For a bigger payout he suggested pairing an alternate Rams spread with a touchdown scorer. And no Saquon Barkley for David this week. Rams vs Eagles preview

Jaguars at Bengals: Jaguars and the over 51.5

Jacksonville beat New England 35–6 and finally got the run game going; Cincinnati lost 30–27 to Pittsburgh, and Joe Burrow’s back looks fine. The Bengals were −126. Pick: Jaguars on the moneyline and over 51.5. Prop: Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns in what should be a shootout; Ja’Marr Chase is also in play, and this is a good same-game-parlay spot. Jaguars vs Bengals preview

Titans at Ravens: Ravens −11.5

Baltimore was an 11.5 to 12-point favorite with a 43.5 total; Tennessee’s implied team total was about 15.5, Baltimore’s 27.5. Zay Flowers (hamstring) and Ronnie Stanley (toe) are worth watching. Pick: Ravens −11.5. Prop: Derrick Henry anytime touchdown — PropsBot confidence 69 at −245 at recording, with a 55.6% red-zone opportunity share (28% is good) against a defense allowing 19.67 points a game. Titans vs Ravens preview

Patriots at Bills: Bills −6.5

Josh Allen has scored two or more rushing touchdowns in three straight games. He took a knee hit late last week but is expected to play. Buffalo was −275 and −6.5. Pick: Bills −6.5. Prop: Josh Allen longest completion over 37.5 (PropsBot confidence 67). James Cook’s touchdown at −125 was also flagged on the board; David is saving the touchdown plays for his touchdown video. Patriots vs Bills preview

Jets at Bears: Jets outright

Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring strain, so Case Keenum starts again for Chicago after throwing for 247 yards and two scores Monday. Breece Hall is week to week with a thigh injury. Chicago was −3 with a 42.5 total. Pick: Jets to win outright. If Hall sits, jump on Braelon Allen’s props before they adjust. Jets vs Bears preview

Packers at Buccaneers: Packers and the under 39.5

Baker Mayfield is out at least three weeks with a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay. Green Bay is coming off a 35–14 home loss to Atlanta and has offensive-line problems. Pick: Packers, and the under 39.5 is interesting. Packers vs Buccaneers preview

Cardinals at Giants: Cardinals

Jameis Winston is the Giants’ starter, and New York lost Brian Burns for the season (torn ACL). Arizona was −116 and −1.5. Pick: Cardinals, but this is a low-action game for David. Cardinals vs Giants preview

Dolphins at Vikings: Vikings on an alternate spread

Miami lost De’Von Achane for the season (torn ACL), leaving Ollie Gordon II and a banged-up Jaylen Wright. Minnesota was a 10.5-point favorite. Pick: Vikings, ideally bought down to −6.5 or −2.5. Justin Jefferson rolled his ankle; if he’s out, look at Jordan Addison or Aaron Jones, and the under 38.5 gets interesting. Dolphins vs Vikings preview

Chiefs at Raiders: Chiefs −4.5

Two of the AFC’s last unbeaten teams. Kansas City was −188 and −4.5 with a 47.5 total and a 26.3 implied team total. Pick: Chiefs −4.5, with interest in the over 47.5. Props: Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns at −120 (he’s done it every game, with 5.33 red-zone trips a game) and Kirk Cousins under 225.5 passing yards. Ashton Jeanty and Kenneth Walker III were the top two plays on the board for this game. Chiefs vs Raiders preview

Broncos at 49ers: Broncos

San Francisco is 3–0 but beaten up: Nick Bosa is out, Trent Williams has a neck injury, Mike Evans a rib strain, and four other receivers are on injured reserve. Denver came back to beat the Rams 30–26. Pick: Broncos to win on the road, pending the 49ers’ injury news. Broncos vs 49ers preview

Chargers at Seahawks: Seahawks −7

The Chargers are 0–3; Seattle was a seven-point favorite with a 43 total. Pick: Seahawks −7. Prop: Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown at −120 — “I’m just going to play this guy until he stops scoring.” Avoid Jadarian Price after last week’s benching; Quentin Johnston’s longest reception is interesting if he bounces back. Chargers vs Seahawks preview

Lions at Panthers (Sunday Night Football): over 50.5 and Lions −3.5

Detroit was −169 and a 3.5-point road favorite. Carolina is banged up: Jaycee Horn is headed to injured reserve (quad), Xavier Legette has a knee injury and Jalen Coker a quad strain. Favorite play: over 50.5; Lions −3.5 is fine. Props: Jared Goff longest completion over 36.5, one of his favorite plays of the week, and Goff over 1.5 passing touchdowns — paired with an Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown for positive correlation. Lions vs Panthers preview

Falcons at Saints (Monday Night Football): over 48.5

Michael Penix Jr.’s return changed Atlanta; New Orleans’ Tyler Shough threw four touchdowns last week but the Saints turned it over four times. Travis Etienne (hamstring) and Atlanta cornerback A.J. Terrell are out. Favorite play: over 48.5, with a lean to the Saints. Props: Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown (PropsBot confidence 62; 78.6% red-zone opportunity share; the Saints allow 27.67 points a game) and Drake London longest reception over 23.5. Watch for Chris Olave’s receiving-yards line when it posts. Falcons vs Saints preview

What the PropsBot Model Says

David’s picks are his own read. The PropsBot model scores every prop from 0 to 100 and only calls a side a pick at 60 or higher. Several of the props above clear that bar: Derrick Henry to score (69), Jonathan Taylor to score (67), Josh Allen’s longest completion (67) and Bijan Robinson to score (62). Others David likes sit below it — Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s touchdown (51), Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns (51.5) and Jared Goff over 1.5 passing touchdowns (57) — so they are his calls, not model picks. Every 60+ read for Week 4, with the price and capture time, is on NFL picks today and NFL Week 4 picks; touchdown plays are on anytime touchdown scorer picks.

How the model’s signals have done, per sport and with sample sizes, is on the public performance ledger.

NFL Week 4 Predictions FAQ

Who does David pick in Rams vs Eagles?

The Rams −3, with Matthew Stafford over 247.5 passing yards. He calls it a statement game for Los Angeles.

What are the best NFL Week 4 overs?

Lions–Panthers over 50.5 and Falcons–Saints over 48.5 are his two favorite totals, with Jaguars–Bengals over 51.5 and a lean to Chiefs–Raiders over 47.5.

Which Week 4 touchdown props clear PropsBot’s 60 confidence bar?

At recording: Derrick Henry (69), Jonathan Taylor (67) and Bijan Robinson (62). Prices move during the week, so check the live board before betting.

Picks are opinions and research, not guarantees. 21+ only; bet with money you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.